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The year 2025 was undoubtedly a year of soaring gold prices. London spot gold closed near $4,300 per ounce, rising approximately 65% for the year, marking the largest annual gain since 1979. The hard currency function of gold was on full display during this year. As 2026 began, gold prices continued to accelerate upwards, with London spot gold prices surging to new heights, constantly resetting market perceptions of gold prices, reaching a historical high of nearly $5,600 per ounce. However, after peaking on January 29, 2026, gold prices experienced a significant drop, subsequently entering a phase of fluctuation and stalemate around $5,000 per ounce. From the continuous rise in 2025 to the initial surge and subsequent retreat in early 2026, every fluctuation in gold prices affects the interests of a large number of investors. Some have doubled their assets by taking advantage of the trend, while others have become anxious after entering at high levels, and some have missed opportunities due to indecision. So, what will the trend of gold prices be after 2026? To answer this question, let’s take a look back at history first. By the end of 2025, gold had been on a continuous rise for three years, with prices increasing about threefold. Before 2022, gold prices were mainly negatively correlated with U.S. Treasury bond yields; the pricing logic was that Treasury bond yields were the opportunity cost of holding gold, hence the lower the bond yields, the higher the gold prices. However, after 2022, gold essentially decoupled from Treasury bond yields. At the same time, the positive correlation between gold prices and the scale of U.S. debt, deficit levels, and the quantity of gold reserves held by central banks around the world became more evident. As history rolled into 2026, President Trump nominated Wash as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Since Wash advocates tightening rather than easing monetary policy and has publicly criticized the Federal Reserve’s expansionary balance sheet policy, he is known as a ‘hawkish’ figure in the financial world. Upon hearing this news, the gold market underwent a massive shock, and prices plummeted swiftly. However, on February 4, 2026, Trump stated that if Wash did not support interest rate cuts, he would not appoint him as the Federal Reserve Chairman. Since then, the gold market has gradually stabilized. With the direction of the Federal Reserve’s policy still uncertain, monetary policy may ultimately lean towards easing due to U.S. debt pressures. Although the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman advocates for monetary policy tightening, whether these stances can be fully implemented still depends on future macroeconomic data. Although gold prices are affected by trading factors and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations in the short term. In the medium to long term, global geopolitical risks, debt issues, and potential risks to the monetary system still exist and may fluctuate before the U.S. midterm elections in November. Looking at the gold market’s operation over the past 50 years, the total duration of gold bull and bear markets is 55% and 45%, respectively, with the median duration of each bull and bear market being approximately 4.5 years. Therefore, after three years of gold bull market, although there may still be time for prices to rise, it is not advisable to blindly bet on the continuous increase in gold prices and pay close attention to the economic policy environment. When significant changes in the situation occur, one can decisively adjust investment strategies. In past gold bull markets, there have been precedents for pullbacks. Investors should manage their positions well and are advised to invest in gold through a strategy of regular investment and increasing holdings when prices are low, to reduce the operations of chasing gains and cutting losses. The safe-haven attribute of gold does not mean that prices will not fall sharply; investors need to recognize its risk-return characteristics. It is not advisable to blindly chase high prices when gold prices rise rapidly. As ordinary investors, one can cultivate investment habits by investing in gold through regular investment. Additionally, gold jewelry should not be chosen as an investment option because the labor costs and brand premiums included in the purchase price are generally not reflected when recycling.